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Core Theories of Collapse & Transition

This module provides the foundational theoretical frameworks that underpin the Post-Hegemony Primer.

It draws from academic research in: - Political demography
- Complexity economics
- State fragility analysis
- World-systems theory
- Comparative historical sociology
- International relations (IR) realism & hegemonic transition theory

1. Structural-Demographic Theory (SDT)

Key Authors:
- Jack Goldstone
- Peter Turchin
- Andrey Korotayev

SDT identifies three interacting structural stressors:

1.1 Elite Overproduction

  • The number of elite aspirants grows faster than the number of elite positions.
  • Leads to intra-elite conflict, factionalism, ideological radicalization.
  • Historically precedes revolutions, civil wars, and state breakdown.

1.2 Mass Mobilization Potential

  • Rising inequality
  • Declining real wages
  • Urban crowding
  • Youth bulges
  • Increased grievance among non-elites

1.3 State Fiscal Distress

  • Rising administrative and military costs
  • Declining tax revenues
  • Expansion of debt
  • Loss of institutional legitimacy

SDT emphasizes cyclical patterns—periods of integrative stability followed by disintegrative waves.

Global examples include: - Late Ottoman Empire
- Qing → Republican China
- Pre-revolutionary France
- Late Roman Republic
- 20th-century Iran under the Shah

2. Tainter’s Theory of Complexity & Collapse

Key Work: The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988)

Main principle:

A society becomes vulnerable to collapse when the marginal returns on complexity become negative.

Complexity = bureaucracy, infrastructure, administration, military, regulatory systems.

Symptoms of negative returns: - Rising maintenance costs
- Diminishing innovation
- Infrastructure decay
- Administrative paralysis

Collapse occurs when the system can no longer sustain its complexity with available resources.

3. Fragile States Index (FSI) Framework

FSI tracks fragility across 12 indicators: - Security Apparatus
- Factionalized Elites
- Group Grievance
- Economic Decline
- Human Flight
- State Legitimacy
- Public Services
- Demographic Pressures
- Refugees/IDPs
- External Intervention
- Uneven Development
- Rule of Law

FSI is used by: - UN agencies
- World Bank
- Development NGOs
- Conflict early-warning systems

4. World-Systems Theory & Hegemonic Transition

Key Authors:
- Immanuel Wallerstein
- Giovanni Arrighi
- George Modelski
- Christopher Chase-Dunn

Patterns: - Cores, semi-peripheries, peripheries
- Long cycles of hegemonic rise/peak/decline
- Transition crises when a hegemon loses economic and military edge
- Rising powers mobilize alternative institutions

Examples: - Dutch → British cycle
- British → American cycle
- U.S. → emerging multipolarity (China, India, regional blocs)

5. The Polycrisis Framework

Popularized by: - Adam Tooze
- World Economic Forum
- Cascade Institute

Emphasizes: - Interlocking systemic stresses (climate, economy, geopolitics)
- Nonlinear escalation
- Cascading failures across interdependent systems

6. Integrated Theory of Post-Hegemonic Transition

Combining all frameworks, the post-hegemonic phase includes: - Weakening centralized authority
- Decentralization of power
- Elite fragmentation
- Legitimacy crises
- Rising internal conflict
- Competition between global institutions
- Search for new global norms

This theory underlies the entire Primer.