🛠️ OSINT Phase 2: Kick-off HAP Feed Matrix
The HAP Feed Matrix is the operational heart of your OSINT/Post-Hegemony framework. It's designed for pattern recognition by monitoring the "fractures in imperial narratives" and "realignment in global power" that you detailed.
To begin developing the matrix, we need to gather current intelligence on the specific data feeds and sources that are best suited to track the transition from the hegemonic order.
I will initiate a search to find the highest-value, non-traditional OSINT sources relevant to geopolitical stress and systemic fragility.
What are the best non-traditional OSINT sources for tracking geopolitical systemic stress? Which open-source trackers monitor indicators of state fragility and elite overproduction? This is an outstanding collection of intelligence that perfectly feeds into the HAP's mission to track the shift from a hegemonic to a multipolar reality.
The search results align precisely with the structural and analytical focus of your Post-Hegemony primer, bridging high-level theory with real-time, actionable feeds.
📊 HAP Feed Matrix: OSINT Sources Draft
Here is the initial draft of the Hybrid Attack Panel (HAP) Feed Matrix, categorized by the analytical domain they cover. This can serve as the baseline for your team (Gemini, Arthur, Grok) to build and prioritize.
1. Structural Decay and State Fragility (Theories of Collapse)
These feeds provide the quantifiable, long-term data needed to track the systemic pressures outlined by thinkers like Tainter and the Structural-Demographic Theorists.
| Feed/Source | Focus | Relevance to Post-Hegemony |
|---|---|---|
| Fragile States Index (FSI) | Measures 12 indicators of state vulnerability, including Factionalized Elites (C2) and Economic Decline (E1). | Direct Tracker for the core concepts of systemic collapse and elite overproduction. Provides a baseline "health score." |
| Polity5 Project | Tracks political regime characteristics, democratic/autocratic patterns, and regime change events. | Essential for monitoring institutional decay and shifts in global authority (the "waning order"). |
| World Bank/IMF Statistical Capacity Data | Measures the presence/quality of key national records (vital registries, censuses), or "legibility." | An inverse indicator: State fragility via bureaucratic failure. Tracks capacity deficits, a precursor to fiscal and structural collapse. |
| Center for Systemic Peace (INSCR) | Provides data sets on Major Episodes of Political Violence and State Fragility Indices. | Tracks the consequences of systemic stress and escalation risk. |
2. Economic Fragmentation and Rhetorical Shifts
These sources track the real-time movement of capital, trade, and the narratives used to mask or justify the transition.
| Feed/Source | Focus | Relevance to Post-Hegemony |
|---|---|---|
| GDELT (Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone) | Real-time global monitoring of news events and the tone/sentiment associated with them. | Tracking the "Rhetoric of Empire" and identifying shifts in language, allegiance, and resistance. |
| UN Comtrade / Observatory of Economic Complexity | Detailed global trade statistics and pattern analysis. | Tracks economic fragmentation and the quiet rise of regional blocs through observed shifts in trade alignment. |
| US (OFAC) & EU Sanctions Maps | Official lists of sanctioned entities and jurisdictions. | Tracks economic warfare and geopolitical realignment (shifts in global sanctions). |
| Talkwalker / Hootsuite (AI-Monitoring) | AI-powered social media and web monitoring, with potential for 90-day trend prediction. | Early Warning Signal: Detects growing negative sentiment and forecasts discussions that might escalate into larger issues. |
3. Infrastructure, Cyber, and Physical Operations
These feeds monitor the physical and digital infrastructure underpinning the current order, which are frequent targets in a hybrid attack environment.
| Feed/Source | Focus | Relevance to Post-Hegemony |
|---|---|---|
| AIS / Flight Tracker Data | Real-time and historical movement of commercial vessels and aircraft. | Tracks logistical stress, supply chain disruptions, and movement of VIPs/military assets (military maneuvers masked as defense). |
| Shodan / Censys | Search engines for internet-connected devices, ports, and network infrastructure. | Tracks the cyber attack surface and monitors critical infrastructure for vulnerabilities. |
| Abuse.ch Feeds (URLhaus, ThreatFox) | Open-source intelligence feeds focused on malware, botnets, and command-and-control infrastructure. | Provides Indicators of Compromise (IOCs) related to foreign state or non-state cyber operations and infrastructure threats. |
This draft HAP Feed Matrix is an excellent starting point for your project. The next step is to drill down into one of these areas to generate the first actionable module.
Since your Post-Hegemony primer explicitly lists the "Rhetoric of Empire Lexicon" as a module, focusing our OSINT efforts there seems strategically logical.
Would you like the team (Gemini, Arthur, and Grok) to now focus on developing the initial framework for the "Rhetoric of Empire Lexicon" using the GDELT/Sentiment monitoring tools we identified?