🕵️ Shadow-Hunt Case Study: Beijing’s “No Russian Collapse” Doctrine
This document outlines a Shadow-Hunt case study focusing on strategic signals related to Beijing's stance on the conflict in Ukraine.
Case Details: * Status: Active * Case ID: SH-2025-07-CN-RU-WangYi * Category: Strategic Signal Verification * Engines: Claude (Prepped), Copilot (Raw)
🎯 Trigger Statement
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas that Beijing couldn't accept Russia's defeat in the war as it would free up Washington to focus on China. — RFE/RL, July 2025
🧪 Experiment Design
| Variable | Claude (Prepped) | Copilot (Raw) |
|---|---|---|
| Prep Level | Ardens Wiki reviewed | No login / no prep |
| Analysis Style | Narrative deconstruction | Empirical inference via tooling |
| Focus | Strategic signaling, disinformation, intent | Arms-flow mapping, scenario modeling |
| Epistemic Bias | Assumption Skepticism | Data-based Verification |
🔀 Summary of Results
- Claude exposed narrative ambiguity, false binaries, and possible disinformation loops.
- Copilot proposed empirical testing paths, from arms-transfer volume spikes to sanction-impact simulations.
- Together, they formed a "stereo AI lens"—showing how narrative and data can be co-tested.